Jiggy's Political Corner

[Jigsaw]

Ryan Zinke just won re-election in Montana's 1st, giving the GOP 208 seats in the House to the Democrat's 187. Plenty of seats left to call, but unless Democrats start sweeping these, the GOP may have the presidency, the Senate, and the House.

Great Party. Amazed at their talented voter outreach. *rolls eyes*

[Jason]

I made fun of Clinton for being such a shit candidate, and she was, so I want to compare results. Now, given that full results aren't in yet, these numbers may be incomplete, but I will note each case this occurs (and I am using NBC for these results).

I want to compare 2016, 2020, and 2024 numbers of various states, though I'll just post one for the time being. This is something many here may find boring, but if you want to actually find a way to possibly defeat these right-wing nutcases, you have to know the numbers behind their victories.

New Jersey:

In 2016, Clinton won New Jersey easily. She got 54.99% to Trump's 41.00%. In 2020, Biden won New Jersey easily; he got 57.14% to Trump's 41.25%.

With 91% of expected votes reported, Harris won NJ 51.5% to Trump's 46.5% - a margin of only 5% (and the closest race New Jersey has had presidentially since 1992, when Bill Clinton defeated George H.W. Bush 42.95% to 40.58% - and remember, Ross Perot ran that year, and got 15.61% (in 2004, Kerry only won with a margin of 6.68%, still better than what Harris is likely to end up with).

New Jersey wasn't called until very late, at least on NBC, and the fact it took so long to call was an immediate indication of trouble. Even though Harris won this state, if that margin stays around that 5% margin, that is a definite example of how utterly atrocious the Democratic Party did in appealing to voters in a state in which they usually win by at least 13%.

The media kept bashing everyone over the head saying he is unpopular. And those who blindly despised him believed them despite his absolutely massive rallies and voter turnout. I predicted every state correctly and had him winning the popular vote by 2 or 3. 24 hours ago, most would've thought that was laughably inaccurate.

[Jigsaw]

I happened to see this posted by someone on a political forum I'm a member of. I found it quite well-written, and generally agreed with much of what it said, so wanted to share it here.

To be clear: I did not write this. I just felt it was worth sharing.

Comment

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[Headhunter]

All true.

[Jigsaw]

So I made some vote total predictions for all the third party and independent candidates that made at least one ballot. I didn't post them here, so the picture below is a snapshot of the predictions I made in late September.

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According to NBC's results, there are still 20 states that are below 97% expected votes reporting, so I haven't done any deep comparison between by predictions and the actual results yet, but if some of those numbers don't change, I was damn close with a few of them.

Cornel West - I predicted 75,000, and right now I see he's at 66,075

Randall Terry - I predicted 45,000, he's at 40,366.

Sonski - I went with 28,000, he's at 28,405

Richard Duncan - I went 15,000, he's at 12,532.

Some are naturally way off, even beyond Stein and Chase, but we're talking candidates like Lucifer Everylove (who has double what I predicted) and Jay Bowman (who has 5,858 votes at the moment to my predicted 2,400) - West, Terry, Sonski, and Duncan, though, seem moderately on point right now.

Naturally, I imagine I'm one of the few who cares, but I thought this was fun, and wanted to add more numbers into this thread.

[zombie]

I happened to see this posted by someone on a political forum I'm a member of. I found it quite well-written, and generally agreed with much of what it said, so wanted to share it here.

To be clear: I did not write this. I just felt it was worth sharing.


qualirt.jpg

sounds like he's got a good grasp on the election. thanks for the share, jig.

[Jigsaw]

I happened to see this posted by someone on a political forum I'm a member of. I found it quite well-written, and generally agreed with much of what it said, so wanted to share it here.

To be clear: I did not write this. I just felt it was worth sharing.


qualirt.jpg

sounds like he's got a good grasp on the election. thanks for the share, jig.

That's what I'm here for.

[Headhunter]

It’s so gross to see all the liberals who were silent about Gaza for a year grow a moral backbone over the past week now that Republicans will be the party aiding Israel.